Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analyst Who Called 2018 Bottom Warns of New Bear Market Low – Is $14.5K BTC’s Next Stop?

Are you watching Bitcoin’s next move? The crypto market is buzzing with predictions, and one analyst, known for accurately forecasting Bitcoin’s 2018 bottom, is making waves again. This time, his forecast points downwards. Let’s dive into what this analyst, Smart Contractor, is saying and see how it stacks up against another perspective in the crypto sphere.

Bearish Bitcoin? Smart Contractor’s Perspective

Smart Contractor, a respected pseudonymous crypto analyst with a significant following on Twitter (over 216,000 followers!), believes Bitcoin’s recent price bounce might be a temporary reprieve in a larger downtrend. He’s using a well-known technical analysis tool called Elliott Wave Theory to support his prediction of a new bear market low for BTC.

Understanding Elliott Wave Theory Briefly

For those unfamiliar, Elliott Wave Theory is a fascinating approach to market analysis. It suggests that market psychology moves in predictable patterns, forming ‘waves’. These waves come in two flavors:

• Impulse Waves: These are the main trend direction and consist of five waves. In a downtrend, these waves push the price lower.
• Corrective Waves: These move against the main trend and are typically shorter and less dramatic. They usually consist of three waves.

In a bear market, Elliott Wave Theory suggests a five-wave downtrend pattern. Within this downtrend, there are brief upward movements (bounces) – these are considered corrective waves.

Smart Contractor’s Bitcoin Wave Analysis

According to Smart Contractor’s analysis, Bitcoin is currently in what he identifies as the final phase of a ‘wave four bounce’. He anticipates this bounce will soon conclude around the $18,000 mark. After this, he predicts Bitcoin will resume its downward trajectory, heading towards a target price of approximately $14,500 to complete the five-wave cycle of the bear market.

As of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $16,979. If Smart Contractor’s prediction holds true, we could see a potential drop of about 15% from current levels.

The Dollar’s Strength: DXY in Focus

Smart Contractor isn’t just looking at Bitcoin charts. He’s also keeping a close watch on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Why is this important?

• DXY and Risk Assets: The DXY measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of other major currencies. A rising DXY often indicates a strengthening US dollar.
• Investor Sentiment: When the DXY is strong, it often signals that investors are moving away from riskier assets like Bitcoin and stocks and flocking to the perceived safety of the US dollar.
• Inverse Relationship: Historically, there’s often been an inverse relationship between the DXY and Bitcoin. A strong dollar can put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

Smart Contractor’s observation of DXY strength adds weight to his bearish outlook on Bitcoin. It suggests a broader market sentiment that might favor a continued Bitcoin downtrend.

Not Everyone Agrees: Credible’s Bullish Counterpoint

However, in the dynamic world of crypto analysis, there are always differing viewpoints. Another Elliott Wave practitioner, Credible Crypto, presents a contrasting perspective. With an even larger Twitter following of over 336,000, Credible believes Bitcoin is showing bullish momentum, especially on shorter timeframes like the one-hour chart.

Credible’s Bullish Elliott Wave Scenario

Credible also utilizes Elliott Wave Theory, but his interpretation of the current market waves differs. He argues that Bitcoin is currently in an uptrend and is poised for a significant ‘bounce’ upwards. According to his analysis:

• Uptrend Waves: In an uptrend, Elliott Wave Theory also identifies five waves, but this time, waves one, three, and five are upward rallies.
• Wave Two Correction: Credible suggests Bitcoin is currently completing a ‘wave two corrective move’ downwards, finding support around $16,400.
• Wave Three Surge: He anticipates that after this correction, Bitcoin will launch into a powerful ‘wave three surge,’ breaking through the $18,000 resistance level and moving higher.

Analyst Predictions Compared: Bearish vs. Bullish

Let’s quickly summarize the key differences between these two analysts’ predictions:

What Does This Mean for You?

It’s crucial to remember that these are predictions, not financial advice. The crypto market is notoriously volatile, and even experienced analysts can have differing views. Here’s what you can take away:

• Divergent Views: Even within technical analysis methods like Elliott Wave Theory, interpretations can vary. This highlights the inherent uncertainty in market forecasting.
• Do Your Own Research (DYOR): Don’t rely solely on any single analyst’s prediction. Consider multiple perspectives, research different analysis methods, and factor in your own risk tolerance.
• Market Volatility: Be prepared for potential price swings in either direction. Bitcoin’s price can move rapidly based on market sentiment and broader economic factors.
• Stay Informed: Keep an eye on both Bitcoin price action and the DXY, as these are key indicators mentioned by the analysts.

In Conclusion: Navigating Crypto Predictions

The Bitcoin market remains a fascinating battleground between bulls and bears. Smart Contractor’s bearish outlook, based on Elliott Wave Theory and DXY strength, contrasts with Credible Crypto’s bullish short-term prediction. Ultimately, the future price of Bitcoin is uncertain. These analyst perspectives provide valuable insights into potential market movements, but they should be considered as part of a broader research strategy. Whether Bitcoin heads towards $14,500 or breaks above $18,000, staying informed and making your own informed decisions is paramount in the crypto world.