Ripple vs. SEC: John Deaton Bets Big on a Ripple Victory – What’s Next for XRP?

The crypto world is holding its breath, folks! The long-running legal saga between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reaching a fever pitch. And who’s adding fuel to the fire of anticipation? None other than the legal eagle himself, John Deaton, founder of CryptoLaw. He’s not just watching from the sidelines; he’s placing his bets – and they heavily favor Ripple. Let’s dive into why Deaton is so confident and what it could mean for XRP.

Is a Ripple Victory Really on the Horizon? Deaton Weighs In

Remember back in December 2020 when the SEC dropped the lawsuit bomb, accusing Ripple of an unregistered securities offering with their XRP token? At the time, XRP was hovering around $0.53. Fast forward to today, and the crypto community is buzzing with anticipation. Deaton, a staunch supporter of Ripple, recently shared his expert opinion on The Good Morning Crypto podcast, and his assessment is pretty eye-catching. He puts the SEC’s chances of a complete knockout victory at a mere less than 3%. Talk about confidence!

But what about Ripple’s chances? Deaton breaks it down like this:

• Ripple Wins Outright: 25% Probability. Deaton believes Judge Torres could rule decisively in Ripple’s favor.
• “Splitting the Baby”: 50% Probability. This intriguing scenario involves Judge Torres potentially ruling that XRP was an unregistered security before 2018, but not after. Think of it as drawing a line in the sand.

So, what’s the “splitting the baby” all about? Imagine a compromise where past actions are viewed differently from more recent ones. This brings us to the fascinating case of the Hinman documents.

The Hinman Documents: A Potential Game Changer?

These documents revolve around a 2018 speech by former SEC Director William Hinman. The key takeaway? Hinman suggested that cryptocurrencies could transition from being considered securities to commodities as they become sufficiently decentralized. This is a crucial point for Ripple, as it argues that XRP’s decentralized nature means it shouldn’t be classified as a security.

Deaton himself is quite clear on this: “I think that XRP itself is going to be deemed not a security, and that secondary market sales show comment. Even if [Judge Torres] does rule finding that Ripple violated the law, that doesn’t apply to secondary market sales.” This is a significant statement, particularly for everyday XRP holders.

When Will We Know? Judge Torres’ Timeline and the “Six-Month List”

The million-dollar question: when will this legal drama finally conclude? While Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse and other executives have been eagerly awaiting a resolution, Deaton offers a more specific timeframe. He believes Judge Torres is likely to reach a final decision before September 30th of this year. Mark your calendars!

Why is Deaton so confident about this timeline? He points to something called the “six-month list.” This is a compilation of pending summary judgments that district judges are required to submit to Congress. These lists are made public at the end of March and September, highlighting any potential delays in case resolutions. Interestingly, Judge Torres has never appeared on this list, suggesting her commitment to efficient case management. That’s a good sign for a timely resolution.

What Happens to XRP Price After a Ripple Win?

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: price predictions. If Ripple secures a favorable ruling, what could happen to the price of XRP? Deaton throws out an intriguing range: between $2 and $10. Of course, this is just a prediction, and the crypto market is notoriously volatile. However, it gives a glimpse into the potential upside many are anticipating.

Key Dates to Watch: June 13th and Beyond

While we await Judge Torres’ decision, there’s another crucial date on the horizon: June 13th. This is when the Hinman materials could be unsealed, potentially offering further insights and impacting the case. Keep an eye on crypto news around that time!

Could Ripple Go Public? The IPO Buzz

The excitement doesn’t stop there. Rumors are swirling about Ripple potentially launching an initial public offering (IPO) once the lawsuit dust settles. Adding fuel to the fire, Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett tweeted on June 2nd that Ripple held a “road show” to meet with underwriters and investors, gauging interest in a potential public offering. This could be a major development for Ripple and the broader crypto space.

The Bottom Line: Why This Lawsuit Matters

The Ripple-SEC lawsuit is more than just a legal squabble between a company and a regulatory body. Its outcome will have significant implications for the entire cryptocurrency industry. It could set precedents for how digital assets are classified and regulated in the United States, influencing innovation and investment for years to come.

Key Takeaways:

• John Deaton is highly confident in a Ripple victory. He gives the SEC less than a 3% chance of winning outright.
• The “splitting the baby” scenario is a real possibility. This could differentiate between past and present XRP sales.
• The Hinman documents are crucial. They could support Ripple’s argument that XRP is not a security.
• A decision is expected before September 30th. Judge Torres’ track record suggests a timely resolution.
• XRP price could surge if Ripple wins. Deaton predicts a potential range of $2 to $10.
• Keep an eye on June 13th. The unsealing of Hinman materials could be significant.
• An IPO for Ripple is a possibility after the lawsuit.

So, as we edge closer to a resolution, the crypto community remains on tenterhooks. With legal experts like John Deaton offering their insights, the anticipation is palpable. Whether you’re an XRP holder, a crypto enthusiast, or simply someone following this landmark case, one thing is clear: the outcome of Ripple vs. SEC will be a defining moment for the future of digital assets.